The GDP value of AI is smaller than it might appear given that a lot of high-tech equipment is imported, according to a recent MRB Partners report.

Recession risk remains low, but the torrid pace of GDP growth in recent quarters is expected to downshift in next week’s delayed fourth quarter report from the government. Read more here.

The reopened government is expected to boost GDP in first-quarter 2026, but the trade story seems to have normalised now, so it will tend to act as a mild drag. The underlying story appears to be holding up though, with the US set to record a sixth consecutive year of 2%+ GDP growth in 2026. However, the lack of breadth remains a concern.

WASHINGTON, Dec 23 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in two years in the third quarter, fueled by robust consumer spending and a sharp rebound in exports, though momentum appears to have faded amid the rising cost of living and recent ...

US GDP growth appears strong, driven by AI-related capital expenditures, despite weakening consumer sentiment and slowing household spending. AI CapEx by hyperscalers now outweighs household spending as a GDP growth engine, but this pace is unsustainable ...

The U.S. economy's resilience in 2025 is expected to carry over when the calendar turns to 2026, with growth expected to accelerate as tax cuts and more favorable financial conditions take hold and headwinds from tariffs and inflation ease, according to ...