Discover how Monte Carlo analysis helps investors assess risk and make informed decisions. Explore its role in generating ...

The US equity market stands at the most extreme valuations in history, on the measures we find best correlated with actual ...

In terms of class probability, entrepreneurs and consumers have to decide which characteristics of a particular event are unique (and not relevant to the probability estimate) and which elements are ...

A multifractal spectrum called a weighted Cantor set model can describe how galaxies cluster, which is similar to other ...

A fully automated bot quietly captured micro-arbitrage opportunities on short-term crypto prediction markets, netting nearly ...

Self-generated skills don't do much for AI agents, study finds, but human-curated skills do Teach an AI agent how to fish for ...

Putting humans and LLMs head-to-head in classic tests of judgment from human psychology underscores the differences between ...

Provided content. One ball on a Plinko board is unpredictable. Drop a thousand and they form a near-perfect bell curve—one of math’s most powerful ideas for 150+ years.

They look to also be better than prediction markets. Analysis by Good Judgment, the organisation that pioneered superforecasting, has run the numbers and found that they have outperformed on average ...

“Some people are wired for all or nothing thinking…. Anything else can create fear and anxiety. It’s hard to overcome because ...

Federal Reserve reveals that prediction market data from Kalshi could improve how policymakers gauge macroeconomic expectations in real time.

People who live in Urbandale are about 100 times more at risk of getting breast cancer than Iowans who live in Fort Dodge, a ...