We document the size of that risk premium in this graph, which shows the zero-coupon yield curve implied by current Treasury ...

Discover how Monte Carlo analysis helps investors assess risk and make informed decisions. Explore its role in generating ...

Forests may reduce not only small floods but also the probability of major ones, according to a new study challenging ...

In terms of class probability, entrepreneurs and consumers have to decide which characteristics of a particular event are unique (and not relevant to the probability estimate) and which elements are ...

A multifractal spectrum called a weighted Cantor set model can describe how galaxies cluster, which is similar to other ...

The 2026 Toyota Corolla comes with a standard three-year or 36,000-mile basic warranty and a five-year or 60,000-mile ...

A fully automated bot quietly captured micro-arbitrage opportunities on short-term crypto prediction markets, netting nearly ...

Putting humans and LLMs head-to-head in classic tests of judgment from human psychology underscores the differences between ...

Self-generated skills don't do much for AI agents, study finds, but human-curated skills do Teach an AI agent how to fish for ...

At least 1.2 million scorpion stings are recorded each year – and around 3,000 people, mainly children, die from them.

One ball on a Plinko board is unpredictable. Drop a thousand and they form a near-perfect bell curve—one of math’s most powerful ideas for 150+ years.

Federal Reserve reveals that prediction market data from Kalshi could improve how policymakers gauge macroeconomic expectations in real time.